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West Pacific/2015/11W/Archive/2
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 2 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 6:00 AM JST SAT JUL 04 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 6:00 AM JST...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 170.2E CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH ABOUT 850 MI...1,370 KM ENE OF PALIKIR, MICRONESIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 KT...45 MPH...75 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 11 KT...13 MPH...21 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK --------------------------------------------- At 6:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Nangka was situated near 9.9N, 170.2E, or about 855 miles (1,370 kilometers) east-northeast of Palikir, Micronesia. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1000 millibars (hPa; 29.53 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking west-northwest 11 knots (13 mph, 21 km/h). Conditions are expected to be generally favorable for slow intensification of the next few days as Nangka tracks generally west-northwestward. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST. $$ Forecaster TAWX14 Discussion TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 2 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 6:00 AM JST SAT JUL 04 2015 Tropical Storm Nangka has organized slightly since this morning. Although the intensity of the convection is not as vigorous as prior, the overall presentation has improved. In addition, spiral banding features have become slightly more prominent and upper-level outflow is expanding. As such, the initial intensity has been edged up to 40kt, higher than recent satellite estimates. The intensity forecast for Nangka remains somewhat complicated. Although the upper-level environment is currently characterized by low wind shear thanks to anticyclonic flow, 200mb wind shear forecasts suggest that conditions may become less favorable after 24 hours as Nangka approaches a weakening upper-level trough. The GFS and ECMWF continue to differ in forecast strength, with the former depicting the cyclone as a typhoon at 48 hours and the depicting the cyclone as a typhoon at 120 hours. The updated WHFC forecast is a blend of the two and shows Nangma reaching typhoon intensity between 72 and 96 hours. Nangka is currently moving on a swift west-northwest trajectory, steered by an expansive 594dm ridge to the system's north. This steering mechanism is expected to maintain dominance for most of the forecast period. By 120 hours, however, the cyclone is expected to approach the western periphery of the feature and begin to track more poleward. The GFS and ECMWF have shifted slightly farther north with the track of Nangka since the previous advisory, and the updated WHFC track forecast follows suit. On its current path, Nangka is expected to pose a threat to the central and northern Mariana Islands, and residents there should monitor the progress of the system closely. INIT 03/2100Z 9.9N 170.2E 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 10.1N 168.8E 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 10.3N 168.1E 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 10.7N 163.6E 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 11.2N 161.4E 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 12.7N 157.6E 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 15.2N 153.4E 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.1N 148.8E 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster TAWX14